On May 17-18, the VII Annual Scientific and Practical Conference "Transport Planning and Modeling – 2022" was held. On behalf of ROSDORNIA, the event was attended by Acting Deputy General Director Ekaterina Bryazgina, Head of the Transport Planning Department Vladimir Pashchenko, as well as Chief Specialist of the Department of formation of the national network of ITS Anton Svistelnikov.
The conference discussed possible changes in the field of transport development in Russian cities, as well as the prospects of urban transport systems in 5 and 10 years. In addition, the experts exchanged views on the research carried out, the tools used, methods and solutions that make it possible to effectively operate and develop urban transport systems.
Vladimir Pashchenko moderated the session "Public Transport: the current situation, new challenges and development prospects", where possible measures were discussed that would support the transport industry and lay the foundations for the future development of public transport in Russia.
During the plenary discussion "Adaptation and development of transport systems to new conditions: current tasks and possible changes in Russian cities" Acting Deputy Director General of ROSDORNIA Ekaterina Bryazgina said that a personal car for residents of megacities is currently a privilege, but in the absence of affordable and reliable public transport in the city, this privilege becomes at the same time an urgent necessity.
"Therefore, in the coming years, the number of passenger cars on the streets of our cities is unlikely to decrease," Ekaterina Bryazgina said.
At the same time, according to the expert, it is impossible to exclude the growth of the popularity of taxis and sharing services, but a sharp surge in the prevalence of these types of movement should not be expected. Bicycles and SIM are unlikely to become competitors to public transport.
"The main task of public transport is mass transportation; it is unthinkable to solve it by means of bicycles and SIM. Moreover, a SIM for public transport is more of a partner than a competitor. If the possibility of convenient transportation of bicycles and small means of individual mobility in rolling stock is provided, this will increase the attractiveness of both "small mobility" and public transport," Ekaterina Bryazgina stressed.
She added that Russia, as a major exporter of hydrocarbons, should now and in the near future focus on realizing its competitive advantages and think about gasification of transport.
Answering the question about how transport in Russian cities will change, Bryazgina said that in each case, the direction of changes will depend on the transport policy of the city authorities. Their inaction is likely to lead to degradation of transport systems.
At the same time, the increase in costs for the purchase and operation of rolling stock will affect sole proprietors and microenterprises operating in the passenger transportation market. It is possible to predict the withdrawal from the market of some of these carriers, the growth of unregulated tariffs and further aging of the bus fleet.
Together, this will lead to a decrease in the quality of work and affordability of urban and agglomeration public transport systems relying on microenterprises.
To fend off this threat, city administrations will have to increase subsidies for transportation at regulated tariffs and increase the fleet of rolling stock at enterprises in municipal ownership. These steps are not available to all municipalities due to budget constraints. An alternative may be to involve large operators in urban transportation, which are more resistant to the unfavorable market situation, possibly on the basis of "gross contracting".
In addition to the unfavorable situation with rolling stock, there may also be difficulties with the creation of ITS, in case of restrictions on the use of foreign software, a shortage of server and peripheral equipment.
The changes brought by 2022, with all the risks they produce, create prerequisites for rethinking the current priorities in the transport policy of cities.
The optimistic vision of the urban transport system that can be proposed is a rationally designed public transport route network serviced by medium and large class rolling stock at regulated tariffs, with strict control over compliance with traffic schedules. The organization of dedicated lanes for route vehicles and the equipment of metrobus lines for main routes allow us to provide high quality transport services at key passenger correspondence (places where there is a need for public transport links between two stopping points). Transportation is carried out by one or several large operators on the basis of "gross contracts", which allows you to flexibly maneuver the transportation capacity of the PTO. A system of on-demand transportation has been developed, which compensates for the consequences of leaving the microenterprise market.
Background information
The conference "Transport Planning and Modeling" is held annually with the support of the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, the largest state-owned companies and corporations. During the event, leading professionals in the field of planning, management and digitalization of transport systems voice key tasks and solutions for the industry, share their experience and form the position of the professional community on the main directions of development of transport systems.